Real Estate Markets are Local
Tuesday, January 29th, 2008“Location, location, location!” spouted the cartoon on the editorial page of the Saturday, December 29 Herald-Zeitung. The cartoon depicted a home teetering on the brink of a downward real estate crash. On the page opposite was an Associated Press article, “New-Home Sales Sink to Lowest Level Since 1995”. I believe it is important to note that this article, dateline Washington, refers to the national market trend for home sales, not the local New Braunfels area market. Like the weather, real estate market conditions are affected by location. It would be foolish to declare in a national weather report that flooding and severe storms are imminent without telling the listener WHAT PART of the country will be impacted. How about forecasting a 24 inch snowfall? Would a weather forecast like that apply to Comal County? Not likely. The San Antonio Express News, in their Real Estate section on Sunday, December 30 included this same national news, under the headline “2007 Year in Review: No Crisis Here.” Key points in the article in the Express News noted that “San Antonio’s resale market held its own in 2007, with prices appreciating at a healthy pace even as it started taking home sellers longer…to connect with home buyers.” The article continues, “Year-to-date median prices – the point at which half the homes sell at a higher price and half sell at a lower price – rose to $150,100 by the end of November, according to the San Antonio Board of Realtors. That was up about 6 percent compared with the same time period in 2006.” The Herald Zeitung article stated “The median sales price of a new home dipped to $239,100 in November. That is 0.4 percent lower than a year ago”. Clearly, there is a big difference in what is being seen nationally versus what we are seeing in the Central Texas area. That same Express News article quoted Jim Gaines, research economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University: “Texas actually fared pretty well, particularly compared to the other major states. Some of the other states have just been a disaster. Our prices continue to go up.” The article also noted that days on market for sales has certainly increased as the mortgage industry has tightened up on lending, and that fewer buyers are stirring. The higher inventory, according to the Express News, has given home buyers the upper hand for the first time in years. To again quote the Express News article, “In 2007, among the busiest and most popular markets was Comal County, where the number of sales rose 19 percent by the end of November, even as most areas in and around San Antonio saw fewer home sales.” “That’s pretty noteworthy,” said Travis Kessler, CEO of the San Antonio Board of Realtors. “Comal County has been a very successful market area for sales in 2007.”
Will our local market stay strong? Will we start to see a decline in prices like other markets have experienced? No one has a crystal ball. However, job growth in our area is strong; and where there are jobs, there are families needing homes. People continue to marry, have children, purchase homes and pursue their dreams. All we really know is that, right now in Comal County, rates are low, homes are plentiful, and buyers have many opportunities to make their dream of home ownership a reality.